What are (Were) we thinking? Are ( Were) we out of our minds?

I was visiting Bangladesh when pilkhana massacre happened. As the events were unfolding on the morning of February 25 2009, I was returning to Dhaka from Chittagong. As I returned to Dhaka that afternoon the general narrative dominating our media and civil society discourse puzzled me. I wrote the following post during late afternoon of February 25 2009. I lost the post as the blog website hosting the post went offline-
Today, after the trial verdict of the massacre came out, a friend discovered the post for me from a web archive-
The narrative of public mind, our media and educated class as I described that afternoon is a fascinating reminder of the fickleness of our collective thinking process –
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The prequel to the doomsday – or the impossibility of it

The last installment of this analysis tried to explain government’s suicidal fixation on undermining Professor Muhammad Yunus. One possible explanation, as alluded to in that piece- was precision pre-planning for a future where Muhammad Yunus could have been the only formidable stature standing while the whole opposition spectrum is decimated – jailed – removed.

Today lets discuss the prequel or to be frank – impossibility of this government planned prequel to the resistance scenario where the opposition gets decimated. It is clear the state is waiting for advances from the opposition – they want the opposition to start it first. They want opposition to call some hartal – annoy people – anger the chattering class belonging to the civil society – then come down hard on the opposition – the way the state came down hard and gagged the post Ilias ali abduction protests. If the top leadership goes behind the bar, Khaleda Zia remains virtually in house arrest incommunicado and the rest of mid level leadership remain on the run – the ground organization of BNP will come to a standstill — this is the assumption of the planners of Hasina war room. May be in the last moment – just after the election schedule is announced – to show some fake sincerity to hold an inclusive election – Khaleda Zia, along with some other senior leaders, will be released. But the mid-level organizers will be kept at a bay to ensure a BNP boycott of the election. Any possible hartal agitation movement will be dealt with harshest state repression. And once an election is somehow conducted with domesticated opposition and some fake break away BNP participating and  as soon as the 3rd Hasina Government  takes oath – full brunt of the state repression will be unleashed upon whatever is remaining of BNP. Khaleda Zia along with her top lieutenants will face harsh or long term sentences. Per PM Hasina’s game plan – vision 2021 will be halfway on its goal.

 

However the above mentioned scenario still remains within the confines of wishful thinking and planning. History tells us again and again – whatever precision planning one may do, whatever full proof the plans may be – eventually, surprise and unplanned factors dictate the flows, the turns and the curves of the history. Another factor that also cannot be ignored by any avid observer of history – is that whatever powerful one may be – without ground based following and a sizable portion of the population backing the regime – no one can stay afloat with absolute power too long. Nature – sometimes presenting as collective public opinion, sometimes presenting as suppressed public demands – finds its way to correct major anomalies against the nature- again an overwhelming public opinion.

 

The state, led by Hasina and her cronies e.g. political advisers, army, RAB and police chiefs, GOCs of strategic military divisions, DMP and other commissioners, bureaucrats – may design the perfect plan of a brutal bloody suppression of the opposition. They may find the confidence and comfort about their success in their successful dress rehearsals of suppressing the opposition movement after Ilias Ali abduction or Hezazate Islam sit in.

 

The problem is that what the planners of Mrs. Hasina fail to see is that the state power has a shelf life. It decays with time. The vigor this state had shown during Ilias Ali agitation or even during hefazate Islami sit in, is no longer there with the state machinery. In the elected autocratic democracies like Bangladesh – the state power and the opposition strength is mutually complimentary. The stronger the state is, the weaker is the opposition. The weaker the state gets – the more invigorated the opposition gets. Even if the high command orders a brutal crackdown of the opposition, it will be unlikely that all ground level enforcers of the state will comply to high command orders with full complicity. Every single police officer, every single district level administrator will think twice before executing any drastic suppression. Because like the rest of the nation they will also be skeptical about PM Hasina Government’s plans to hang on to a second term by force. They will be very careful in trying not alienating the future ruling party. The state may have foreseen and preempted this problem by heavily recruiting hardcore ruling party zealots from a certain part of the country- but these zealots will be too little too weak to negate the skepticism and inaction of self-serving skeptic members of the  administration.

At the same time the opposition force Hasina’s state machinery will face on the streets will be much stronger than before.  Possibility of an upcoming election will drive constituency based resistance to state suppression. Potential candidates of each constituency as well as their ward level followers will try their best to show their support and organizational capacity in launching a resistance. The incentives were not as high two years ago, the hope of an end to the oppression and hopes of paybacks were not as near.

 

Then comes the other surprise factors. The strongest Prime Minister in history of Bangladesh could not contain a young newbie grassroots leader of her party during Gazipur city corporation elections.  Even when our PM’s clout and stature was at the peak we saw Ivy-Shamim Osman, Afsar Uddin- Simin Hossain Rimi type organizational chaos. At the end of her tenure, how she would expect to contain all the deprived leaders of the party? Esp. how she would dissuade the local leaders  who know it very well that if they again remain within the list of the deprived, if they have to pave the way for the other leader to become the MP or Upazilla Chairman, their political career is practically over.

This factor will weigh heavily in suppressing the opposition. May be the opposition BNP activists will see unexpected allies among the ruling party deprived factions.

 

Then other shocking surprises like 1/11, August 15 is always there in the horizon.

The facts above suggest it very clearly that if the government has any plan to oppress the opposition and hold a one party election, although it will not be impossible, it will not be walking on a cake. If we go back to the Terminator movie analogy – precision planning by the strongest super computer Skynet system and all the full proof pre-emptive acts to protect the planned future failed to human resilience and surprises.  Prime Minister Hasina, with all organs of the state behind her with solid subservience, may have found herself invincible during last four and half years. But her invincibility will be seriously tested by a skeptic administration, a chaotic feuding organization she leads and a n invigorated opposition.

 

[ In the third and final installment of the analysis, we’ll discuss the best exit plan of PM Hasina and about the 3rd Hasina Government if PM Hasina somehow succeeds in hanging on to power]

 

Muhammad Yunus and the terminator

Professor Muhammad Yunus is a man with formidable international name recognition, domestic popularity and civil society –donor acceptance. So he definitely is a rival to Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina at least in terms of clout and recognition. Is this the reason behind Mrs. Hasina and her Government’s self-immolating attempts to harass and undermine Professor Yunus? Is jealousy is the only factor behind the fact the whole state craft of Bangladesh spend months after months, whole cabinet spends two hours in special meeting and octogenarian Finance Minister makes it his magnum opus to somehow device a way for the state to remove Mr. Yunus from his high held position?  It is true that when the state wants to remove a little potato like Ram Rahim Jodu Modhu – they simply can put them behind the bars for indefinite period, disappear them forcefully, kill them in RAB cross fire. The higher clout figure they go after – the more difficult it gets. Vanishing Chowdhury Alam, a unit organizer of central Dhaka BNP was much easier for the state than removing Ilias Ali, a nationally recognized leader. As such, Professor Muhammad Yunus is way much big a figure for the state to simply remove from the horizon. State of Bangladesh can stage an event to remove Muhammad Yunus – but the consequence will be too much to handle. The mind of statecraft is not that clouded yet with jealousy not to be able to think of that.

 

৬ আগস্ট ১৯৭৫

৬ আগস্ট ১৯৭৫

তখন চট্টগ্রাম মেডিকেল কলেজের অধ্যক্ষ ছিলেন অধ্যাপক জোহা
ন্যায় নিষ্ঠাবান এবং অত্যন্ত কঠোর এই চিকিত্সক শিক্ষক বিনা কারণে পরীক্ষা পেছানো ক্লাস ফাকি দেয়া ইত্যাদি কঠোর হাতে দমন করতে চেষ্টা করলেন
কিছু ছাত্র ও ছাত্র নেতা ব্যাপারটা সহজ ভাবে নিল না
এদের মধ্যে কেউ কেউ পরকিল্পনা করলো অধ্যাপক জোহা কে হত্যা করার
৬ ই আগস্ট রাত – গ্রীষ্মকাল – দেশের মানুষ জানালা খুলেই ঘুমায় –
অধ্যাপক জোহার শয়ন কক্ষ লক্ষ্য করে খোলা জানালা দিয়ে শক্তিশালী গ্রেনেড ছোড়া হল
আততায়ীর কক্ষ নির্ধারণ ভুল ছিল – তারা যে কক্ষটি অধ্যাপক জোহার কক্ষ মনে করে ছিল সে রুমে এক বিছানায় ঘুমাত অধ্যাপক জোহার ১৫-১৬ বছর বয়েসী দুই কন্যা – মিলি আর টুসি – দুবোনের শরীর ই ছিন্ন ভিন্ন হয়ে গিয়েছিল বোমার আঘাতে – তাত্ক্ষণিক মৃত্যু —

ওই হত্যা কান্ডের কখনো বিচার হয় নি – অধ্যক্ষের বাসভবন এর দারোয়ান এবং ক্যাম্পাসের প্রত্যক্ষদর্শীদের বিবরণীতে যাদের কথা উঠে এসেছিল তাদের মধ্যে ছিলেন তত্কালীন মেডিকেল কলেজ মুজিব বাদী ছাত্রলীগের সভাপতির নাম – উনি গ্রেফতার হয়েছিলেন এবং বহিস্কার হয়েছিলেন সাময়িক ভাবে – পরে সাক্ষীর প্রমানের অভাবে বিচার আর চলে নি
এই ভদ্রলোক বর্তমানে বাংলাদেশ সরকারের একজন পুর্ণমন্ত্রী

 

Three videos, three reactions and one loser

Writing this blog was extremely difficult. Because this blog forced me to watch part of some gruesome videos of public lynching and listen to some poor soul’s last cries for life and see beastly traits of mankind. In most cases I turned off the video during the chopping beating scenes. I apologize to AoD readers for posting these gruesome videos, although I guess most of you have already come across this videos through social media. I will strongly advise viewers discretion before watching the videos.

 

Protected: M Ilias Ali : His right to be dead

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Status Quo versus those crazy 13 points, a nonagenarian cleric and the angry young men

Photo: Saiful Islam

The whole country is still in a standstill after the Long March and Dhaka rally of Hefazate Islam. Hefazate Islam, a conglomerate of several thousands Madrassahs across the country, announced this long march program to press their 13 point demand. Their 13 point demands are the following,

1. Reinstate the phrase ” Complete trust and faith in Allah” in the constitution and abolish all laws contradicting the dictates of Quran and Sunnah.
2. National Parliament must pass new law with provision of highest capital punishment for blasphemy.
3. The Murtad atheist bloggers who are leading Shahbag movement and speaking ill of prophet Muhammad ( SM) and Islam must be punished and all the anti Islam campaign must be stopped.

 

The Tale of the Dead

Amar Desh Photo

Since the beginning of Shahbag square movement, especially  since the death sentence announcement of Jamaat leader Delwar Hossain Sayedee, violent confrontation caused the loss of a lots of lives. As there has not been any effort to tabulate an exact death toll, it is very difficult to say precisely how many people died during the last two months of political unrest. A sample count of  daily death tolls reports on different violent days during the last 30 days following Sayedee verdict, it is clearly evident that the number of death is very high, unprecedented in the history of post 71 Bangladesh.

 

Love that Country

It was early or mid 1980s. I am just finishing my high school.  1972 Bangla film ওরা এগারো জন  Ora Egaro Jon, was re-released in theaters across the country. In mine and many others’ opinion, ওরা এগারো জন is one of the ten best movies ever made in Bangladesh. This movie, made by freedom fighter turned director, Chashi Nazrul Islam and starred by Razzak, Shabana as well as star freedom fighters like Khasru, Nantu etc,  is one of the best 1971 related movies ever made.

 

The Killer Instinct of Transparency International Bangladesh

According to the website of Berlin Based Transparency international, the vision of the organization is a world in which government, politics, business, civil society and the daily lives of people are free of corruption.

And it’s mission, as mentioned in the same website, is to stop corruption and promote transparency, accountability and integrity at all levels and across all sectors of society.

But when one looks at some of acts of Transparency International’s Bangladesh outlet ( Transparency Internation Bangladesh, TIB)- it is very difficult to match those acts with the mission and vision of Transparency International.

Lets look at some of the recent statements of TIB.

 

Please help the minority communities in Bangladesh

Please donate to help the minority communities in Bangladesh who have been the victims of recent violent attacks. Any amount is helpful.

 

The Shahbag People

“How do we characterize or categorize the people of Shahbag? Who are the people of Shahbag? … What is the class character of this group, what excites or drives this group? Who they were during different periods of our history- how they were represented during different historical milestone of Bangladesh.”

© Arif Hafiz

 

Shahbag and the politics of BNP

During the first week of Shahbag Square Movement, when the momentum and public passion for the movement was at its peak, the biggest opposition political party BNP’s discomfort with the movement was very clear.

BNP’s reaction was initial rejection and dismissal to a very uncomfortable embracing of Shahbag one week into its movement. However BNP was happy to get out of the painful embrace in the earliest opportunity. This opportunity came with the discovery of atheist blogs reportedly of slain blogger thaba baba. Very quickly getting rid of any lost love; BNP started denouncing Shahbag as an anti-Islamic movement.

 

We Salute

 

Black Swan rising

© Arif Hafiz

© BdNews24.com

 

From Tiananmen to Shahbag, via Tahrir

While describing Shahbag Square movement, frequent references are being made to Tahrir Square, the site of recent anti -autocratic movement in Egypt. However, although there are more similarities, Shahbag has not yet been discussed in reference to the famous Tiananmen Square movement of 1989 in China. The reason of missing Tiananmen reference may be two pronged. One, in ultra-short memory span of the minds of the analysts of Shahbag Square movement, an event of 1989 is not much distinct now.

 

1983: In Shahbag, they died FOR a cause

1983. February 14. Shahbag moar, Dhaka.
Students of Dhaka University gathered for a large scale protest. Their demands were 1. Postpone anti people education policy, 2. Free all jailed students and 3. Restore democracy.

Police opened indiscriminate fire at the protesters. Five students – Zafar, Dipali Saha, Jainal, Mozammel and Ayub – were killed instantly in police firing.

 

Khaleda Zia’s Washington Times Article

The opposition leader and former Prime Minister of Bangladesh, Mrs. Khaleda Zia published an op-ed in the Washington Times. It is titled, The thankless role in saving democracy in Bangladesh – Corruption and stealing threaten a once-vibrant nation

Once a reader reads this piece, it leaves no scope of confusion in his/her mind that Mrs. Zia is appealing the USA to pressurize current Bangladesh rulers into becoming more democratic.

Without spending much time in introduction she jumps into a disguised complain by stating that USA is sitting idle while Bangladesh plunges into an autocracy and is shifting it’s economic alliance away from USA to China, India and Russia.

 

The Crime and the messenger

An interesting news came out of Afghanistan today. A senior judge was covertly tape recorded while asking for bribe and proposing to marry a woman whose divorce case he was handling. The fallout of the news — whole world in focused on the judge, starting from Afghan president to the Anti corruption guru– every one promised to take action. And no one questioned how illegal it was to secretly tape record a senior sitting judge while he talks about his case.

 

Connectivity and Communalism

When I was a student in Bangladesh, my world was my campus, my TSC, evening tea stall adda, night-time hostel adda. I used to see the world around be by collective actions emotions among this surrounding. And in between the campus days, it was our rock er adda, evening cha-dalpuri adda, post dinner household family adda. These were the tools for to understand the vibe of the people around.