Few weeks ago, when Tunisa’s Ben Ali boarded a flight to uncertainty and when my twitter page was abuzz with minute by minute Triumphant messages from Tunisia, I tweeeted, ” Last revolution in middle east gave us Iran, what awaits in the future for Tunisian revolution? And how about an Algerian revolution?”

Last few days, it has become impossible to tune into any US news media without listening to 24/7 coverage of Egypt — What the protesters are doing, What will hapeen to Israel, How Israelis are seeing this, What if Muslim brotherhood comes– is Israel safe, what US should do now, —- etc etc etc
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It is very obvious that US mainstream media including liberal outlets are more concerned about the ramification on Israel in case of fall of Mubarak than the effect of it on Egyptian people or future of US-Egypt relationship.
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The verdict from the analysts over last week was that Mubarak’s days were numbers — fall of Mubarak was inevitable by the end of the week. This verdict made me cringe everytime time I heard desi bidesi analysts making it boldly. I may soon be proven wrong, but I feel Mubarak’s fate is still up in the air. I want to give him the benefit of doubt in suspecting that Mubarak may survive this crisis. However I’ll be happy to be proven wrong.
And I also feel that survival of a shaken, weakened Mubarak is the best possible case scenerio at this time.
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Why do I feel this way? Being an active foot soldier of anti-Ershad movement of late 80s, I see an eerie similarity of current anti Mubarak movement with our anti-Ershad movement. Good and bad, post Ershad, we got what we have now. And we got this crippled post 91 democracy of two ladies despite having several advantages,

1. We had a a very powerful two party grassroots political system. They were ready to take over.
2. We did not yet have Islamic militancy issue.
3. We had at least two widely revered leaders in Sheikh Hasina and Khaleda Zia.
4. We had fairly organized professional bodies, trade unions and student organizations.

Compared to this, Egypt has nothing to fill in post Mubarak vacuum. No political platform was allowed to set forth from Egyptian soil over a period of at least haf a century. A much diluted of it’s 50’s self, confused, haphazard outfit called Muslim Brotherhood is banned officially but allowed to function only to be played as a fear card to be played by Mubarak. This is Mubarak’s card to the west, if it is not me, you will have to deal with Muslim Brotherhood. On the other hand, to show the Egyptians who is the real boss, Mubarak allows Brotherhood candidates to win 88 seat as independent in one poll and gives them zero seats in the following election.
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Although our Prime Minister thought BNP is destroyed and she only had two enemies to deal with, one dead – Late President Ziaur Rahman and one alive — Nobel Laureate Dr Muhammad Yunus, Mubarak’s Yunus, El Baradei is absolutely incapable of rising to the occassion. Since El Baradei moved to Egypt last year, he showed how out of touch non resident Egyptian he is. Rather that walking through the dirt of Egyptian ground politics, he preferred to spend most of his last year writing his memoir in an Alpine cottage north of Vienna.
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I see post Saddam iraq in post Mubarak Egypt. Can the world handle another Iraq?
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So don’t I wish success to those young protesters in Egypt as vividly protrayed in a photo few posts down in this blog?

I don’t see it as an Egyptian uprising anymore. It is Arab youth uprising. Last few weeks, in my facebook page, I have been watching how a hjab clad young Sudanese female is charged up with the unfolding of events in Tunisia and Egypt. Hour by hour status update, hope-resove-dispair, comment-optimism- anger against the old cotery, hope against hope for democracy. The hope against hope for democracy vividly brought me back to our days of 80s. We had similar anger- hope-resolve.

Let this hope and resolve do not end up is hopelessness and perpetual dispair or generation suffered in Bangladesh. Like the way anti Saddam anger turned into a lethal self mutilating force in Iraq, I don’t want this protesting Arab youths’ endless energy get diverted into harming each other.
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Egypt is a third world country like Bangladesh. Anyone in power, be it El baradei, be it Sulaman, will be very unpopular in the shortest time. Even if it can’t unseat Mubarak, let this uprising help form an Arab youth coalition as a permanent pressure group in the Arab World. Let this movement be the beginning of the formation a strong opposition and more accountale government which knows what people power is and is definitely afraid of that.
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The latest chatter from USA is that of a military supported interim government in Egypt. Don’t I know enough of that in Bangladesh? Should Egyptians be fooled by that ” Bring a derailed train back to track” cannabis? By the way, the role of Military throughout this current uprising clearly reminds one of Bangladesh Army’s role in Anti- Ershad urrising. Like it is in Egypt now, Army then used to be a universally respected body. But do Bangladesh army command that level respect anymore? After the ” Military ( And west) Supported Interim Government’ ” of Moeen Uddin and Fakhruddin and ISPR acts over Khaleda Zia home incident , do our Army command that universal respect anymore?