Which way our beloved Bangladesh is heading? Lets discuss the possible futures of Bangladesh.
Writing this part would have been easier even one week ago until when we could keep dreaming that the election commission would call the real BNP for a dialogue. Forecasting a good future has gotten a bit difficult now. Yet, let’s try. The endeavor for better future never ceases its’ stride.
Two main political leaders will be released from jail. The rest of the political prisoners however may remain in jail to face the due process. The ban on political activities will be withdrawn to let the political parties’ solve their own internal conflict in an open environment of party councils. The current anti-corruption drive may continue under joint forces but selective persecution is stopped. An earlier election date and election schedule is declared. The political activism and nations focus immediately gets thrown at the election. Nation gets busy with campaigning. The army chief goes back to his Pre 1/11 protocol and visibility and continue his tenure till June 2009. The army lets the current CTG administration focus on finishing election. After the election a quick power handover is arranged.
There actually should be no worry of repercussion under new government. The new government will initially remain grateful to the CTG/army chief for facilitating the power handover. Gen Moeen, still army chief, will enjoy unprecedented military-civil society-media support and will remain immune from any repercussion. Senior very involved brigadiers may be given foreign posting even before the election.Historically, army generals enjoy a kind of impunity under a civilian government. Except Ershad’s short jail terms, no General have ever been punished by a civilian government in Bangladesh. When BNP came back to power in 2001, it came heavy-handed after Dr Mk Alamgir and others for their perceived role in ‘jonotar mancha’ but dared not touch Gen Nasim, Gen Miron, Gen Morshed for their proven role in a failed coup.
The government, with tacit instructions from the military intelligence agency, breaks up political parties and forms a pro military front. They somehow manages senior AL leadership to take part in election and forces BNP mainstream away from the election. Keeps Hasina and Khaleda in jail. Uses local government election as the staging event to set up the grassroots of the pro government front. Spends money in recruiting political leaders and activists for the new party. Uses Election commission as a tool to achieve most of its’ political goals. Ordinances after oddinance slowly turns the state into a semi-military state. NSC goes into effect, Supreme Court remains bent in front of the army chief. The new government MPs as well as the media/ columnists work hard to persuade general Moeen to assume Presidency. The new parliament passes laws empowering the president with the sweeping authority to dissolve the parliament, sack the premiers etc.
The CTG, torn between the external/ street pressure to adopt the “good” option and internal instinct to go the ‘bad’ way, fails either ways and messes it up badly. 2008 comes to an end without making any headway towards any direction. With increased food prices, the streets and markets get very agitated against this CTG. Jailed leaders; Khaleda-Hasina gains back 1990 level popularity. Military top brass also withdraws support of Moeen and his Brigadiers. Election gets delayed. Massive street violence erupts. A counter-coup like situation develops.
I personally think, a very strong and concerted effort has been undertaken to implement the ” Bad’ future option for Bangladesh. What do you think?