Awami league

Curent Status:
About to or already swallowed the bait set up by the military government.
RATS are back in full form and effectively in Control.
Conformist leaders like Motia chowdhury, Shahara Khatun, Abdul Matin Khasru, Subid Ali Bhuiya etc are mysteriously silent.
Getting ready for starting the partnership with the government. Alreday started local election process.
Party activists, intellectuals, well wishers are however gloriously  against this military government.
Rationale:
Prefer pragmatism over idealism. Three bird in one stone. Make friendship with army, destroy BNP. Destroy Jamaat and thus destroy center rights election hopes.
Future:
1986 style election and credibility loss. Will in turn make Khaleda popular again.
Not Clear:
How they will handle Hasina. Can’t go to election keeping Hasina in jail. Released of Hasina keeping Khaleda in jail will be suicide for both AL and king’s party.

BNP

Current Status:
Set to be on the street for a long haul. A repeatition of 1983. Party is effectively split, but the grassroots and support base remains loyal or coming back. Crisis of senior leadership. 80’s student leaders are effectively in charge. The worst time is probably over, although the coming days may look bad.
Rationale:
BNP strongly believes that they still represent center right and center right in Bangladesh will win fair elections.
Future:
Boycott elections. Party symbol may go to King’s party fraction of BNP. Will remain in the street rather alone( May be Jamaat) for at least two years into the new government of 2008. Khaleda family may remain in jail for an indefinite priod. Unofficially party leadership may temporarily be taken over by one of Khaleda’s daughter in laws.
Not Clear:
Remains to be seen how they face the wrath of the military government over the coming few months.

BNP ( Kings Party fraction)

Current status: Dismal
Rationale: Dismal
Future: Dismal
Not Clear: What the hell they were thinking.

Jamaat
Current Status:
Not too bad. Leadership are more or less free.
Rationale:
Why they went into offensive regarding 1971? The rationale is crystal clear now. It happened suddenly after Jamaat meeting with CEC. CEC has been talking like a center-left political leader over the last few weeks. He was more Awami League than Awami league leaders during his meeting with AL. During his meeting with Jamaat he gave strong hints that he may try to bar jamaat leaders from participating in polls on the ground of war crime. Jamaat leader, foreseeing a court battle on war crime issue, started a denial campaign. It was intended only to make the court room fight easy.
Future:
Bad time is coming. CTG may use the Jamaat war crime court battle as a layer of smoke screen and keep the awami league intellectual force happy. If war crime becomes a strong issue, jamaat will change leadership and induct Bangladesih generation like ATM Azaharul islam and kamaruzzaman.
Not Clear:
Jamaats joining hands with BNP mainstream will be a big boost for BNP and help BNP keep the street agitation going during the coming bad days. Question, will jamaat return the favor to BNP?

JP (Ershad):
Current Status: Hopeless
Rationale: Hopeless
Future: Hopeless
Not clear: Who is Ershad’s current active wife?

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