Amazing things are happening. Compared to even one week ago, the changes are quite dramatic.
1. Politicians are talking quite loudly. Neither the ban on indoor politics has been removed nor has SOE been lifted. Surprisingly, these same politicians were stone quite even when there was a dire need for them to speak out. At that time they cited the ban on indoor politics as reason of their silence.
2. Media has opened up. There was no one to participate in Tritiyo Matra last week. Tritiyo matra started taking single interview of unknown persons. At one point they had to do a program with Singer Shuvro Dev and ex cricketer Raqibul Hassan debating. Suddenly politicians are returning and talking evil of current government. No more SMS about Sheikh Hasina statements. Hasina-Khaleda’s pictures have re-occupied the leading first page spot where CinC’s picture has moved downwards.
3. Judiciary has started flexing muscles. Bails are being issued, government actions are being questioned.
4. Suddenly politicians again started proving their allegiance to the two old leaders. This is a u-turn from their stand of last week.
5. Daily JaiJaidin has reverted it’s BNP alliance after several weeks of marriage with the CTG.
6. Barrister Moinul Hossain is trying to save his future back by relegating the blame of the attempted exile of Hasina-khaleda on the leaders of their parties. And general Matin has suddenly stopped talking.
6. And more importantly and rather appropriately (Compared to previous engagements), Army Chief shared his views with two journalists in a social gathering. He affirmed that military has no intention to take over the governance.
Like 1/11, I believe history just gave birth to another milestone date, i.e 4/25, April 25th. Govt issues press note back tracking on their exile khaleda-Hasina plan.
With this back track, a dry run completes its mission, all concerned power brokers came to the understanding that a authoritarian or military government is no longer an option for Bangladesh. The reasons may ne mutipronged.
1. As a result of globalization, exile is no longer an effective tool.
2. The media as well as the clout of certain countries on Bangladesh politics has become way too powerful.
3. The appetite for state power is (with possible one or two exceptions) not too intense in the armed forces. Starting from the army chief, the whole of military leadership is now Bangladesh trained. Unlike Pakistani culture, this Bangladesh generation of generals has gone through rigorous training in a curriculum that is very carefully designed to infuse the allegiance to civilian state leadership. And increasing public contact of armed forces via RAB has helped the armed forces officials understand the depth of public dislike of a total military takeover.
Like 1/11, 4/25 has also significant implication on the future of nation’s democracy.
An example has just been created that will dissuade future efforts to derail a democratic process.
However on the other hand, 4/25 may significantly weaken the current CTG. A weakened CTG means a less radical reform in basic issues in different areas like EC, ACC etc. Similarly ongoing prosecution of the corrupts may take a backseat.