Wednesday, April 25th, 2007

The plan A against the two hated/beloved political leaders of the country has apparently failed. This failure has not only derailed the efforts of CTG and their backers to redesign Bangladesh politics, it has exposed the lack of coordination, lack of planning, chaos and restlessness within the government.
This failure could be a lesson to learn from.

But I doubt the backers of the CTG will take lesson from the failure of plan A and I feel they will now try heavy-handedly to impose plan B.

I suspect that the plan B of this powerful quarter to get the country rid of these two major political party leaders will be to implicate them with corruption/violence and blackmail them into jail sentence or worse. And news items in today’s newspapers like this one reporting inquiry of these leaders’s bank account suggest that the steps towards plan B have already started.

While Plan A was conceived on Pakistan-Musharraf-Benazir-Nawaz model, Plan B will be totally based on a domestic model. The model in this case will be our good old H M Ershad. I feel per this plan B, the two leaders will be subjected to a litany of corruption cases similar to what Ershad endured. And the plan B authors also believe that as Ershad was controlled with the stick called jail for long fifteen years, these two leaders also could be managed with the similar jail fear.

However, a very publicized and failed plan A has weakened the prospects of a plan B. Specifically its credibility will be questioned from the start. Now any corruption case against these two will be taken with a grain of salt by all parties concerned (This same thing could have been extremely popular one week earlier). There will be more international scrutiny and invigorated domestic resistance to prosecuting these two leaders.

The irony is that if the plan B was attempted immediately post 1/11 and not after a failed Plan A, the chances of prosecuting and crippling the political prowess of these two leaders would have been much easier. And a big portion of the general population in Bangladesh would have supported this plan B, but now they would rather be a cautious observer while there will be another large chunk of population who will dare oppose this publicly.

For more on these two leaders, especially why they are unfairly and wrongly treated as dynastic despots please read this post.


While the nation is watching the drama surrounding the efforts of the current military backed government to oust the two major political leaders off the country, let us dive into the past to review how did these “Two” became what they are now.


After the killing of Bangabandhu sheikh Mujibur Rahman, his extended family and 4 other senior leaders of the party, the then ruling Baksal party’s main component Awami League became leader and radar less. A big portion of the surviving leadership immediately switched allegiance. Within the next few years, several leaders tried to revive the party. Notable among them was late Abdul Malek Ukil, Late Mizanur Rahman Chowdhury and Mr. Abdur Razzak. But during those days, the rebuilding process of AL was seriously hampered by the feud between these three leaders as AL quickly broke into two groups led by Mizan and Malek. And in Malek AL, there was serious feud between Malek And Razzak. At this point, another person, returning from Europe, joined the foray. He is Dr Kamal Hossain. His efforts to take over the leadership of AL faced heavy resistance from feuding Malek Ukil, Razzak and Tofael Ahmeds. At this juncture when the party was about to face another split during the party council of 1980, Dr Kamal Hossain placed the ultimate trump card. He put forward exiled daughter of Bangabandhu Sheikh Hasina’s name as the party president. Until that point Sheikh Hasina was not aware of any of these developments. Although in the long run Dr Kamal Hossain’s plan to run AL via Sheikh Hasina didn’t work, it was probably the most crucial move in revival of Awami League. Sheikh Hasina, slowly and steadily united party, re-mobilized the party base and brought the party back to power.