1. I have a feeling that the current political impasse is going to be over soon. The compromise package of the CTG advisers is going to be a successful one.
(A) Too much pressure of Awami League grassroot in favor of going to election.
(B) A political mistake by BNP. After a series of very intelligent steps to outmeneuver the AL led 14 party, when some quarter in BNP forced the president in nominating two controversial new EC, it deliberately threw the momentum of the war towards the alliance of 14 party.
(C) Whirlwind tours of the foreign envoys. The pressure was probably more on Awami League.
3. BNP low command (Apparently BNP decisions are made by the low profile command led by Tareque rahman, not by the the old men at high command standing body ) feels that enough has happened to somehow erase the memory of the immediate past government’s failures like load shedding, price hikes etc.
4. BNP however will have to take an big U turn on it’s policy regarding election commission and no compromise.
5. Just observe the politics of BNP and compare that of Awami League. While AL was in street agitation and unpopular activities like oborodh, BNP leader is following a long planned series of events. After taking one week off the limelight, Khaleda Zia is hitting the media daily with meeting series with professionals. Go investigate, you will find how many weeks in advance the auditoriums at Bangladesh China Friendship auditium were booked. After that series is over now she will be in the media almost daily with one joining ceremony a day. Yesterday was a BJP leader from Comilla, Today was Aorongo from Shariatpur. It will go on unil she will start the candidate interview and then the campaign itself.
And see what what Sheikh Hasina did yesterday? She finally met professionals. the teachers. A copycat move. And where did she meet them? At the engineer’s institure, the meeting place of the 60s and 70s. And where Khaleda met teachers, lawyers, doctors, engineers, agriculturists? Two weeks ago she met them at the state of the art auditoriums at China Friendship auditorium and BIAM.
I believe organizational level leadership in Awami League need new blood.
6. Factor Ershad.
Let me give you one example why Tareq Rahman et el are so desparate for Ershad.
2005 Dinajpur 1
Monoronjon Shil Gopal (JP rebel) 1,12,977 votes
Aftab Mollah of Jamaat 50, 575 votes
No Awami League in the field.
2001 Dinajpur 1
Abdullah Kafi of Jamaat 88,000 votes.
Abdur Rouf of AWami League 62,000 votes
Monoronjon hil Gopal of JP 41,000 votes.
Now please do the math of alliances.
7. By the way what Ershad is upto now a days? Which side his party is with now?
8. Can anyone tell me what happens if BNP accepts the advisors package and Awami League does not? The advisors are the government, will they have any moral obligation left but to go ahead and fullfill the constitutinal obligation of holding an election, be it without Awami League? Will a continued oborodh bring in the much sought after mass upsurge?