While we wait for the events to unfold within the next few days, let me explain my take on a 3rd political force.
1. Liberal democratic party has been formed and Bangladesh citizens are embracing this new entity in the hope that it will be the much coveted 3rd party. I knew LDP was coming, but was not as elated.
B and Mahi Chowdhury with Major Mannan formed a quite organized political party called Bikalpa Dhara within a short time. Mahi has been forced to learn politics from the basic grassroots level. I was hoping Oli and others will join this force under B Chowdhury’s leadership.
Col Oli was in Michigan this summer. No doubt he is relatively honest, headstrong, and outspoken. But I also saw in him was grandiosity, impractical ambition and a lot of rhetoric.
A political party can hardly exist with two presidents. I see having Oli as a executive president is a recipe for a future split in the party.
Plus this party has Abu Hena and Alamgir Kabir. Abu Hena resigned from BNP accusing Alamgir Kabir as the patron of Islamic militancy.
And this party promises to start crusade against corruption with Jahanara Begum, one of the most corrupt BNP minister.
All this makes me really wary of a good future of LDP.
But still I wish all the best for LDP. I hope a 3rd political force centers around LDP.
2. During this election, I want to see LDP forms a strong 3rd political alliance. The possible partners could be Dr Kamal’s 11 party, Kader Siddiqui’s jukto Front. And also Ershad’s JP. I believe together they can bag 70-80 seats.
If they have 70 seats, Awami League will have to form a government with the support of this alliance led by Dr Kamal, B Chowdhury et el.
In that way, we can hope that the atrocities of 96-2001 or 2001- 2006 will not be repeated.
3. If LDP and others join 14 party , there will again be AL government. 3-4 leaderrs will be remain quite after becoming minister. (Remember Anwar Monju, ASM Rab during 96-2001 Government?) There will be no check and balance. And in government there will be same atrocity, corruption and nepotism. Because there will be nothing but the same old wine in a new bottle.
4. So my hope is to see a fair, peaceful election in due time with three major alliances (14 party, 4 party and 3rd force comprising of LDP, 11 party, Jukto front and Ershdad) running for 300 hundred seats.
5. And my wishful early prediction?
14 party 120-125
4 party: 90-100
3rd force 70-80