April 24, 2008
Future of Bangladesh: The good, the bad and the Ugly
Posted by Rumi under Bangladesh | Tags: Bangladesh |Which way our beloved Bangladesh is heading? Lets discuss the possible futures of Bangladesh.
The Good
Writing this part would have been easier even one week ago until when we could keep dreaming that the election commission would call the real BNP for a dialogue. Forecasting a good future has gotten a bit difficult now. Yet, let’s try. The endeavor for better future never ceases its’ stride.
Two main political leaders will be released from jail. The rest of the political prisoners however may remain in jail to face the due process. The ban on political activities will be withdrawn to let the political parties’ solve their own internal conflict in an open environment of party councils. The current anti-corruption drive may continue under joint forces but selective persecution is stopped. An earlier election date and election schedule is declared. The political activism and nations focus immediately gets thrown at the election. Nation gets busy with campaigning. The army chief goes back to his Pre 1/11 protocol and visibility and continue his tenure till June 2009. The army lets the current CTG administration focus on finishing election. After the election a quick power handover is arranged.
There actually should be no worry of repercussion under new government. The new government will initially remain grateful to the CTG/army chief for facilitating the power handover. Gen Moeen, still army chief, will enjoy unprecedented military-civil society-media support and will remain immune from any repercussion. Senior very involved brigadiers may be given foreign posting even before the election.Historically, army generals enjoy a kind of impunity under a civilian government. Except Ershad’s short jail terms, no General have ever been punished by a civilian government in Bangladesh. When BNP came back to power in 2001, it came heavy-handed after Dr Mk Alamgir and others for their perceived role in ‘jonotar mancha’ but dared not touch Gen Nasim, Gen Miron, Gen Morshed for their proven role in a failed coup.
The Bad
The government, with tacit instructions from the military intelligence agency, breaks up political parties and forms a pro military front. They somehow manages senior AL leadership to take part in election and forces BNP mainstream away from the election. Keeps Hasina and Khaleda in jail. Uses local government election as the staging event to set up the grassroots of the pro government front. Spends money in recruiting political leaders and activists for the new party. Uses Election commission as a tool to achieve most of its’ political goals. Ordinances after oddinance slowly turns the state into a semi-military state. NSC goes into effect, Supreme Court remains bent in front of the army chief. The new government MPs as well as the media/ columnists work hard to persuade general Moeen to assume Presidency. The new parliament passes laws empowering the president with the sweeping authority to dissolve the parliament, sack the premiers etc.
The Ugly
The CTG, torn between the external/ street pressure to adopt the “good” option and internal instinct to go the ‘bad’ way, fails either ways and messes it up badly. 2008 comes to an end without making any headway towards any direction. With increased food prices, the streets and markets get very agitated against this CTG. Jailed leaders; Khaleda-Hasina gains back 1990 level popularity. Military top brass also withdraws support of Moeen and his Brigadiers. Election gets delayed. Massive street violence erupts. A counter-coup like situation develops.
I personally think, a very strong and concerted effort has been undertaken to implement the ” Bad’ future option for Bangladesh. What do you think?
.
April 24, 2008 at 2:22 pm
The first part is expected. The second part is feared to occur. But confusion rambles to everybody about the third part.
If #2 is failed, then #3 is sure to come. In 90/91, superpowers lifted support from Ershad bcoz America realized dictators are no more needed to suppress communism after the end of Soviet era. But now, how their treatment to this regime will be changed, that’s unknown to me.
April 24, 2008 at 8:08 pm
I don’t have any good guess where the country is heading to. But age as a teenage passionate activist of our freedom struggle, I now have a profound sense of remorse and say why did I do so. I don’t know how far the veracity of piece of news published in Nayadigontha that says I refer to “……Kader siddiki [Baga Kader] said, if he had read Quran well with uderstanding its meaning before our independence war he didn’t have fought the war of independence….” I questoin myself did we really gain anything with the sacrifice of so much of blood, allegorically a sea of blood as I don’t believe in fictional figure of 3 million martyrs.
We did all the sacrifices, to independent, to stand on our own feets with the head erect. But the way country has been running for last 37 years, can we claim we are more independent and standing on our own feet with our heads erect. Maybe I’m aberrant in my way of thinking, but clearly I don’t see anything we have achieving anything we fought for.
Are we more independent now? I say, NO. I don’t want our tribal friends in hill-track would be discriminated against or suppressed by us. But in 23 years of Pakistani time, we didn’t have to yield to joint tribal and Indian pressure. We now had to yield to the combined pressure of tribal people and their so called Indiana ally and we had to agree with their autonomy symbolizing the ersion of our state power.
Now, we have so many of murubbis. Be it the Awami league, BNP or our Military, all are the puppets of foreing forces. No government any longer can show its meetle or independence. In the name of bilateral issues we are subdued by our so called friendly good big neighbor and for the sake of so-called developmental issues we became the slaves of the powerfuls. The World bank, IMF and UNO all NGO-breeding industries are, to me, no more than the East India Company which in the name of business was the cause of our 200-year-long slavery. Now our elected or non-elected governments can’t take any decision for us without green signals of so called EU, Tuesday groups or the Apa, the Didi or uncles of green zone or embassy area.
The more the days are passing, the more, instead of standing erect with steady heads, we are stumbling or staggering with stooped spines, necks and heads
The many will argue that despite political instabilities and all the negatives, we scored many significant positiveis. But those achievment is far below the people’s desires, dreams and expectations. The achievement what we see is at its nadir. If we throw a deadbody in the river it will, of course, move some miles before it get decayed to full non-existence. We can’t say the dead body has swam to its destination. That plight is passive, that’s not active achievment. Our so called flourishing is not anyway, better than floating a dead body in the river aided by the low and ebb tide of the river.
What we have in our store for us in future only God knows [Allahu Aalam]. But God chooses all the governments for all the nations based on their actions and deeds. Therefore, as a nation if we collectively correct ourselves Allah will surely, choose a good government for us.
Thanks.
April 24, 2008 at 10:24 pm
Xanthis, you are being optimistic. The first part is what we wish. Second part is expected, and the third is feared.
Rumi bhai, I disagree with your argument why the coupmakers (we have to stop saying Moeen, the cabal is much larger) have little to fear retribution. Firstly, it’s not true that army has been spared in the past. Ershad was in jail for nearly 6 years straight - longer than any other politician in our history. And the majors who killed the Sheikh family were arrested 2 decades after they were given the indemnity. Not to mention the coups and countercoups of the 1970s and 1980s. It’s true that the 2nd Khaleda government didn’t go after Nasim etc, but this doesn’t mean a future BNP government won’t put Moeen etc in the slammer. After all, Ershad didn’t lock up Khaleda’s entire family and broke her son’s back. So, these guys have a lot of reason to fear retribution.
So I don’t see the ‘good’ outcome happening. I think ‘bad’ is the default. Now let’s get down to the nitty gritty of the ‘bad’ scenario. What are we talking about here?
On the jatiyatabadi side of politics (the majority in the past quarter century, let me remind everyone), there will be a BNP. It will have the dhaner sheesh symbol. But it won’t have Khaleda’s leadership. In this side, there will also be half a dozen other parties, Bikalpa Dhara, LDP, PDP, JP etc. These jatiyatabadis will also have a formal or informal alliance arranged by the DGFI.
If BNP-Khaleda wants to run, it will run under a different symbol. And it won’t be able to use Zia’s or Khaleda’s image - the electoral laws will be amended so that jatiyo netader bitorkito kora jabe na.
On the Awami side (the single largest, but not the majority party), Hasina will accept the ‘necessity’ of being minused. Tofail will lead AL into the election. But there will be rebel candidates (nothing to do with minus-2, AL always had rebel candidates) in 50 or so seats. And without Hasina’s personal authority, it will be impossible to rein in the rebel candidates.
And in the Islamist corner (much larger than Jamaat), expect some reallignments and possible leadership changes so that the war criminals are removed.
Now tell me, what will happen in the election? will people go out and vote? In 1991, the turnout was 55%. So anything around that figure will be enough for legitimacy. What will happen in 5 way contests (approved Jatiyatabadis, ‘true’ BNP without Zias’ image and dhaner sheesh, AL, rebel AL and Islamists) in battleground seats in Chandpur and Tangail?
I don’t think much, if any, manipulation will be required to limit AL’s tally to 120-130 seats. And then you’ll see Tofail begging for Hasina’s forgiveness in 32 Dhanmondi, after his house is burnt down by angry party workers. Alternatively, if Tofail can deliver AL a majority, you’ll see Mannan Bhuyian’s house burning and Tarek mukti andolon gathering pace. And whether it is a Hasina led anti-Moeen andolon, or Tarek-mukti andolon, it will be ugly.
But we might not need to wait that long for the ugly. Look at the photos of people waiting for water in Dhaka, or read about the electricity situation etc. Ugly won’t need Hasina-Khaleda’s leadership. Ugly will be some 30 year old guy leading 10,000 people burning down the local government office anywhere in Bangladesh.
April 25, 2008 at 9:01 am
We can predict a guy to be one of members of any newly formed party by this regime. He is exMP Dhirendra Saha. He has got bail today.
Click here to get more on this.
April 26, 2008 at 2:52 pm
I don’t think Hasina-Khaleda ever fell below 1990 popularity (ref your ugly scenario). If the election had gone ahead in January 2007, even without rigging/interference, I think there would have been a minimum of 35% support for Hasina - Khalda factions, and the winner would have been decided by alliances and swing voters, just as in 1991, 1996, 2001. They have never fallen from popularity. The issue of regaining that level doesn’t arise. What is perhaps correct is that they will be martyrs now, as opposed to seen as the arrogant power hungry corrupt betrayers of peoples’ trust that they had come to represent - but even with this, they represented the fault line in Bangladesh politics and were symbols for the roughly 50:50 split in our schziophrenic country. Nothing has happened in last year and a half to address that split or reconcile our divided mindset