Awami league
Curent Status:
About to or already swallowed the bait set up by the military government.
RATS are back in full form and effectively in Control.
Conformist leaders like Motia chowdhury, Shahara Khatun, Abdul Matin Khasru, Subid Ali Bhuiya etc are mysteriously silent.
Getting ready for starting the partnership with the government. Alreday started local election process.
Party activists, intellectuals, well wishers are however gloriously against this military government.
Rationale:
Prefer pragmatism over idealism. Three bird in one stone. Make friendship with army, destroy BNP. Destroy Jamaat and thus destroy center rights election hopes.
Future:
1986 style election and credibility loss. Will in turn make Khaleda popular again.
Not Clear:
How they will handle Hasina. Can’t go to election keeping Hasina in jail. Released of Hasina keeping Khaleda in jail will be suicide for both AL and king’s party.
BNP
Current Status:
Set to be on the street for a long haul. A repeatition of 1983. Party is effectively split, but the grassroots and support base remains loyal or coming back. Crisis of senior leadership. 80′s student leaders are effectively in charge. The worst time is probably over, although the coming days may look bad.
Rationale:
BNP strongly believes that they still represent center right and center right in Bangladesh will win fair elections.
Future:
Boycott elections. Party symbol may go to King’s party fraction of BNP. Will remain in the street rather alone( May be Jamaat) for at least two years into the new government of 2008. Khaleda family may remain in jail for an indefinite priod. Unofficially party leadership may temporarily be taken over by one of Khaleda’s daughter in laws.
Not Clear:
Remains to be seen how they face the wrath of the military government over the coming few months.
BNP ( Kings Party fraction)
Current status: Dismal
Rationale: Dismal
Future: Dismal
Not Clear: What the hell they were thinking.
Jamaat
Current Status:
Not too bad. Leadership are more or less free.
Rationale:
Why they went into offensive regarding 1971? The rationale is crystal clear now. It happened suddenly after Jamaat meeting with CEC. CEC has been talking like a center-left political leader over the last few weeks. He was more Awami League than Awami league leaders during his meeting with AL. During his meeting with Jamaat he gave strong hints that he may try to bar jamaat leaders from participating in polls on the ground of war crime. Jamaat leader, foreseeing a court battle on war crime issue, started a denial campaign. It was intended only to make the court room fight easy.
Future:
Bad time is coming. CTG may use the Jamaat war crime court battle as a layer of smoke screen and keep the awami league intellectual force happy. If war crime becomes a strong issue, jamaat will change leadership and induct Bangladesih generation like ATM Azaharul islam and kamaruzzaman.
Not Clear:
Jamaats joining hands with BNP mainstream will be a big boost for BNP and help BNP keep the street agitation going during the coming bad days. Question, will jamaat return the favor to BNP?
JP (Ershad):
Current Status: Hopeless
Rationale: Hopeless
Future: Hopeless
Not clear: Who is Ershad’s current active wife?
November 8, 2007 at 10:59 pm
Rumi, I liked your humor about Jatio party/Ershad: Not clear who is Ershad’s current active wife? But I guess, neither of them are active becuase I believe but not sure, he[ERSHAD} himself maybe inactive in his SLP.
And What about GMUA! I’m not sure about who will be the prime player after June 2008 when Moeen is slated to be retired. Will he then be an active player or be passive enough handing over power or compelled by, to MASUD.
In other thread Jyoti commented GMUA is a very smart guy. But I believe too much of anything is bad/Aati Chaalaker Golaye Dori.
Thanks.
November 8, 2007 at 11:21 pm
I just wanted to clarify, as far as I know, due to his promotion to General, Moeen does not have to officially retire until June 2010. Did you mean he’s going to voluntarily retire?
November 9, 2007 at 12:21 am
“BNP ( Kings Part fraction)
Current status: Dismal
Rationale: Dismal
Future: Dismal
Not Clear: What the hell they were thinking.”
onek din dhorey eto haashi nai!
November 9, 2007 at 12:47 am
BNP’s ‘Not Clear’ can be like…
“How many cards this junta will play on the party and how those will fail.”
Cards Junta has played so far:
1. Mannan Bhuiyan.
2. Bodru.
3. Midnight Coup. (Nishi Raate Churi)
(i) Paban’s Arrest.
(ii) Heckling Delwar.
(iii) Playing Hafiz & Saifur.
4. Ill interpretation of Nov 3′s coup.
5. Col. Rashid.
6. CEC Shamsul Huda.
Possible Cards:
1. Relating Zia in Mujib’s murder case.
2. Another interview of any Mujib’s murderer.
3. A Statement from Ershad relating any issue.
4. Releasing some anti-KZ crooks from jail.
November 9, 2007 at 12:50 am
Diversions those this regime has played.
1. Yaba raids.
2. FDC raids.
3. Dramatic Judicial Separation.
4. ….
5. ….
November 9, 2007 at 7:30 am
Now looking back, I would consider KZ’s decision not to leave Bangladesh was a major turning point for BNP and its supporter. Second major point is court cases against her and her family has been proven to be farce to BNP supporters. Given these two factors, supporters conscious remain clear about KZ and her family. These effectively keep them united.
November 9, 2007 at 12:23 pm
Excellent analysis.
I am pleasantly surprised (astounded is more like it) that AL managed to steer clear of the “Zia involved in the Mujib murder” red herring. If the political leadership is getting over petty rivalry and concentrating on the big picture, the country still has some hope.
But where is MUA? 11 days and counting.
November 9, 2007 at 1:17 pm
Thanks j@shadakalo.
Zillur Rahman’s answer was very calculated and smart. This sort of reply you get when you have a party president who, before opening his mouth, will consult 14 other leaders. I don’t how how Sheikh Hasina would have responded. But it is also true that Zillur Rahman had no option but to refute Col Rashid’s claim.
The case has already been tried in a court of law during Awami league rule. And the court has found many people guilty and handed them capital punishment. The verdict is now under appeal process.
At this moment a new info from the prime accused would completely jeoperdize Bangabandhu trial. Now if Awami league president did not refute the claim, definitely the defence lawyers would present this claim in the court to weaken the case. Absolute certainty is imperative before ordering capital punishment.
I feel Col Rashid gave this risky ( Knowing well that this might expose himself and embarrass his hosts) interview with the same goal. This is a confusion creating campaign only to save his colleagues from capital punishment.
The timing also suggests that intention. Bangabandhu murder appeal process is about to be started.
What is better than implicating two names who are died 26 and 32 years ago.
November 9, 2007 at 2:48 pm
Response to # 7-
IMO AL’s managing on clearing Zia from Mujib murder had the resemblence of Mujib’s forgiving so-called war criminals. Knowing his diciple’s crime in & in the after math of 71′s war, clever Mujib had to forgive all just to save them. Lately in victor’s court judge, Jury and executioner were all delivering AL/so-called secularist’s dirty fruits, so AL didn’t have to go Lathi-baitha action at this time and one of its leaders could become saint like Mujib became afterwords of forgiving drama. Mone hoy Saitaner baap, Maa, thakur, Mashi, Pishi all will bow to these connivers and call them EI SHAITANER DAAL. The following are two good write-ups on the creation of political quagmire just to fish on trouble water….
1.http://www.daily-dinkal.com/details.php?nid=11369&pubdate=2007-11-10
2. http://www.daily-dinkal.com/details.php?nid=11369&pubdate=2007-11-10
November 9, 2007 at 2:51 pm
And………
Moeen U Ahmed and his brothers Minhazuddin Ahmed and Salam or salauddin ahmed is forming a new PARIBATANTRIC political party.
http://www.dailynayadiganta.com/fullnews.asp?News_ID=51277&sec=1
http://www.amadershomoy.com/news.php?id=211305&sys=1
Welcome to honestocracy, ershad style.
November 9, 2007 at 2:55 pm
Did Zillur Rahman go to Macau?
Moeen’s visit to Macau was not covered at al any one. What was his mission in Macau?
November 9, 2007 at 8:40 pm
I’ve said this before, and I stand by it, the best way out of the current crisis is for AL to participate and win the election. That was also the best outcome in January. AL’s decision to boycott that election was wrong, and if it goes for andolon again that will also be wrong.
As for BNP (or centre-right), it will have to make a difficult choice – stand with the general’s ‘honest’ leaders, or regenerate a genuine political leadership. I hope that it chooses a political leadership. After 5 years of AL rule, it will almost certainly choose the political leadership. And everyone will be better off for it.
November 9, 2007 at 11:35 pm
And to elaborate before I get dubbed as closet AL-er or Indian agent or anything like that, let me elaborate on my view on the centre-right/BNP.
In Khaleda’s 2nd term, BNP experienced two massive failures, and both had the same root cause.
First failure was intellectual. It failed to hold on to, let alone elaborate on, the intellectual foundation for and ideology that Ziaur Rahman tried to create in the 1970s and Khaleda inspired (through anti-Ershad movement) in the 1980s. You can see the result today, when the fight against military takeover is being carried out by the centre left (with a few honourable exceptions like Rumi bhai).
The 2nd failure was practical. We can shout a lot of slogans, but the last government was quite incompetent when it came to a few basic things like public administration, law and order, macro management and service delivery. That the current regime is proving to be a failure doesn’t change the fact about BNP’s failure.
And the root cause of both of these failures IMO was the premature and flawed transition of power from Begum Zia to her son and a coterie around him.
BNP/centre-right needs to reorganise and regenerate itself. It needs to weed out the turncoats and opportunists. And it needs to formulate a coherent ideological/intellectual platform. History suggests that this is more easily done in opposition. Now, this opposition can be against a military dictatorship, or it can be against an elected political adversary. Opposition against Moeen will give a BNP/Khaleda a default legtimacy, and there is a risk that the hardwork of party forming and ideological soul searching will be avoided. Opposition against AL will force BNP to regroup.
Now the centre-right has to ask itself difficult questions. Will the hatred of AL trump and the centre-right join hands with the regime? Will it decide that soul searching and party building is too hard and join destructive andolon and jihad? Or will accept that it will be out of power for 5 years or so, but use the 5 years to regroup?
November 10, 2007 at 12:21 am
Response to # 10-
When GMUA left NY, he said that he was going to CHN but in a series of his lies that seemed just another addition. Lately he commented that army didn’t take power and was helping this illegal GOVT as it helped previous GOVT. But no one dared to ask what helping hand did army provide when AL/LEFTY criminals openly killed over 65 BNP/JI supporters and injured over 5000 throughout the country? It was evident from their action that they helped AL/Lefty goons to accomplice such unprecedented crime. When BNP/JI started to fight back army and lefty oriented BNP leaders like GMUA and MV quickly moved to neutralize them. On a separate note he portrayed as an idealist but his action proved that he was nothing but a liar and Munafik. Someone here is finding intellectual bankruptcy in BNP’s camp but I suggest to look at the history of AWAMY expertise in creating CHAYER CAPE JHAR. If KD didn’t bring Traiq in politics then AL/Lefty would find another excuse to create a non-issue as a big issue. It was always been intellectual dis-honesty and terrorism that remaind core in AL’s legacy. And liar GMUA added more fuel on that flame. Haire afshosh ! Aaz O Bengali daat takhte daater marjada bujlo na.
November 10, 2007 at 1:28 am
Being afraid to be honoured by shoes, the traitors are not daring to open the head office of BNP ,even with police protection.
http://www.amadersh omoy.com/ news.php? id=211482&sys=1
So the weak people who don’t have police, army help on their side should use it more and more to fight with the traitors , opportunists.
it is not conventional weapon. but if you are pushes at the wall, your existance is at stake, you can use it.
When life is under threat, then even haram food are allowed to eat.
So use this effective weapon to fight the black hand of traitors . those who effectively used it on Mahbubur rahman and showed its efficacy , should be given prize and
prize should declared for those who will use it in future and financial security while they will be in jail.
BNP leaders from abroad should personally declare such prize ,not any unit of party, to keep the traitors confined at home and make them failed in conspiracy.
November 10, 2007 at 1:22 pm
I would like to disagee with Jyoti # 12.
BNP never had an intellectual base in the first place. Most intellectuals in Bangladesh have always been left leaning. Lefts always had a tendency to move toward AL since it is their preferred alternative.
AL in the past used to use intellectuals such as Muntasir mamun and gang. After the failure of those intellectuals gang to help AL win the 2001 election, AL changed its strategy.
http://www.shaptahik2000.com/shonkha/2001/20011019/pk20011019.pdf
The above article will give you some idea.
For that very reason post 2001 AL intellectual base got occupied by mainly economists like Rehman Sobhan, Debopriyo bhattacharya, Abul Barakat and others. In the mean time pre 2001 AL intellectuals decided to take the back seat. They came in with the responsibility to prove that BD economy was collapsing.
And then on your other points.
Law and order situation in BD improved immensely in the year and after 2004. It was due to shontrash AL lost the 2001 election.
Macro service or economy. BD had its best ever economy in and after 2004. BD for the first time reached its export target in 2005 and crossed double digit figure (10 billion dollars). BNP stabilized the foreign currency reserve and helped break records.
http://nation.ittefaq.com/artman/exec/view.cgi/61/33284
Since 2005 UN termed BD as the one of 10 fastest growing economies in the world.
BNP ended its term with the highest economic growth rate of 6.7%.
If BNP had any problem with its governance how it could get success in the above critical and impotant sectors.