A change happened in Bangladesh on January 11. Although we know the collective forces behind the changes, it is not clear which single person or which group of people made the January 11 changes happen. I hope the group of civil society members who have been entrusted with the responsibility of running the country know the persons causing the change.
A big question is in everybodies mind now, that is, what’s next? What will happen next, how this interim government will handover to a permanent government? When that will happen? What kind of government will that government be? Which political party or person is likely to lead that government?
Let’s discuss the possible answers.
Option # 1.
Like good boys, this government will focus on election reform, election and an earliest handover of power. As demanded by AL and BNP they will start voter list work very soon, an election will be held by June and governance will be handed back to politicians.
Reality: That option seems quite unreal under current circumstances. There is, in general no appetite for an early election. The CTG cheid reiterated several times he wants to ensure full reform in ALL sectors of the country before announcing an election date.
Option #2.
A longer term government. Take some major steps in cleansing the mess created by 15 years of lootocracy in the name of democracy. Reforming EC and finish the corruption trials before holding the elctions. The election will be again between mighty AL, BNP and some distant 3rd parties, one led by Dr Yunus.
Reality: This is certainly a strong possibility. But I have a strong doubt that the major power brokers in current Bangladesh, be it army, be it civil society or be it the donor community, have a sincere intention to do that. So far there have not been any categoriocal statement from any of the leaders, Fakhruddin or Moin U Ahmed which would have meant, ” We will return the power to one of the two major political parties”.
Option #3.
Slowly, covertly and steadily weaken the two major political parties and eventually bring them to a stage where they will be organizationally unable to win an election.
Somehow, may be by means of referendum, change to constitution to Presidential form or a power sharing national government form as proposed by Dr Yunus. In the meantime help Dr Yunus’s party grow and make him the definite winner in the presidential election. In this formula the Upazilla election may come first.
Reality:
PS of Sheikh Hasina Dr Alauddin is locked up. So is Khaleda’s PS Falu. Another PS Haris is on the run and waiting to be caught. The noose around Tareq is tightening. Another Hasina aide Salman is also in custody. Our leaders do all the dirty works through their PSs. And even if they don’t do any dirty work, they could easily be trapped for the crime of their PS.
This method would disqualify both Khaleda/Hasina as well as some top political leaders from running for election and also prosecute thousands of grassroot level workers of both parties.
Some perceived clean leadership are being chased away from their political parties. Foremost names in the rumor mill are Mannan Bhuiyan, MK Anwar, B Chowdhury, Col Oli, Dr kamal etc. to join Dr Yunus’s party.
It will be more of a depoliticized democracy led by Dr Yunus.
Option # 4.
A compromise of option # 3 as it will be easier to implement. Keep AL as it is and definitely under leadership of Sheikh Hasina, Jalil, Obaidul Kader etc. Destroy BNP only. It will be easy to do. ( In fact it is always easy to attack a party just after their rule. The paper trail and foot prints to corruption still are very fresh). Lock up Khaleda, Tareq, force some top leadership like Mannan Bhuiyan, MK Anwar into Yunus’s party. Then have Yunus, with BNPs grassroot force and support behind him, face AL’s Sheikh Hasina in a Presidential election.
Reality:
Still the majority of Bangladesh and the establishment ( Civil and military) supports a Bangladeshi nationalism that was envisioned and defined by Late president Ziaur Rahman [ AL ers call this force as anti AL force]. Because they support Bangladeshi nationalism, and as they found Khaleda’s BNP was the only formidable forces to uphold that nationalism, the establishment and the majority of the people helped BNP come back to power at least three times since assasination of President Zia.
I have a strong feeling that most of the people sitting in the current CTG are patrons of that force. For this group of establishment as well as the voters of Bangladesh, the value of party BNP or person Khaleda Zia is zero while their allegiance to Bangladeshi nationalsm is extremely strong.
In this context Zia’s Bangladeshi nationalism plus Dr Yunus plus spirit of 1971 create a formidable force that will be extremely difficult for AL to defeat in a presidential or even parliamentary election.
Is this why the AL intellectual lathial bahini is in full war mode against Dr Yunus?
Option # 5.
Or there is something else that may come next? What do you think dear readers?
March 4, 2007 at 2:02 pm
Here is my take–
The 3rd CG with support from the puppet master(s) hidden behind the curtain will create a political situation where the major political parties as the last resort to save their existence, become anarchists. The 3rd CG will at this point with endorsement from the National Security Council, ask the armed forces to declare full martial law for the sake of maintaining national security and peace. At this stage, the constitution of the country will be amended to introduce a presidential form of government where Dr. Yunus, Dr. Kamal or Mr. X will assume the position of president assisted by the National Security Council. Martial law will be in force for few more years until situation is conducive for a genuine, fair election.
Cheers
March 4, 2007 at 2:05 pm
Rum Bhai I am not concerned about the election result and all. I am just thinking about the type of format of the next Bangladesh election. Yes I am completely agreed with you that Idealism of BNP +Yunus= Anti Al platform .
One point is coming up what will be roll of
element like Jamat? You are correct also that
Maximum Care taker Govt advisers are representing that Bangladeshi Concept. But question is coming up on the Honesty or integrity of them.
Actually My opinion is that post 1975 This type of force came in the politics of Bangladesh in Different Masks some times as BNP, some times as JP or May be today as Nagarik Shkati.
I don’t know why I feel Nagarik Shakti is more sophisticated than BNP or JP. Because world is changing. Now whole world is a global village. So this type of anti India or Pro India are back dated in the politics.
Now Secularism will come it may not be for
particular Ram or Rahim . It may be for a particular group. But what I am scared the whole power will be concerned to one group. May be lots of traders, Editors or So called Intellect will enjoy sweet of Honey . Media will be completely controlled by them. We may be praised for every thing and May be we Upper Middle class or Upper class will be benefited . But
result may be even dangerous.Because who cares about lower middle class and lower class of the country. We will Enjoy KFC and Cyber culture by ourselves.If Lower class died we should not have problem. Because They do have also life line which are illiteracy and Poverty . Then If any JMB is born we don’t have any problem
March 4, 2007 at 3:11 pm
I recommend Option 2, with major cleanup of lootocracy and total reform of the govt and electoral system – except, to the extent that when there IS elections held (year or 2 from now), there will be no AL and BNP as we know it.
Entire AL and BNP should be history, since their legacy of lootocracy should be LABELLED as a symbolic era of crime and shame for the people.
This may be done through new legal system now being established, based on AL-BNP record of neglect of corruption during their regimes, effectively to ban the parties of AL and BNP, for their mass abuse of government crime and corruption.
[Right now, AL and BNP are ITCHING for elections, as they might be fearing dissolving of AL & BNP. Yet when they were in power, they spent 15 years boycotting and hartalling the country, with no regard to constitution].
To replace AL-BNP, I suggest a SECOND party after Nagorik Shakti, so that NS and OTHER new party can replace AL and BNP, in next elections.
All ministers, PM and MPs in past 15 yaers govts should be dis-qualified from future elections. Effectively, Hasina Khaleda etc should be all dis-qualified, based on their mis-management of corruption.
Significantly, CTG should pursue separation of church and state in new system, so that Jamaat, Khilafat etc will also join the AL-BNP gang as forbidden parties.
Parties cannot be based on religion, corruption, or family-ties.
A Total new govt system should be DESERVED by the people, and no “demands” of AL-BNP addressed.
March 4, 2007 at 3:38 pm
Well KGAZI Can you come out of Whims and be little bit of Practical on your Point? and Can you please explain what do you want to say
“To replace AL-BNP, I suggest a SECOND party after Nagorik Shakti, so that NS and OTHER new party can replace AL and BNP, in next elections”
Basically You are speaking about simply and Undemocratic system. How can you know Nagorik Shkati will not represent such lootocracy? Please guys just come out of Fantasy. Politics and Democracy can’t be a fairly tale that any Tom , Dick and Harry
will declare a political party and will be treated as second force. Kindly Try to hear the Heartbeat of the poor people of the Country not for the Section of Elite Class who knows only to give the theory and don’t know Implementation at all. and This is the reason why Bangladesh and Its Democracy is not reaching at Next Level.
March 4, 2007 at 4:36 pm
Terrific analysis. Food for thought.
I was sitting in front of the tele, watching ATN’s ‘Satdin’ (the last seven days) presented by Mithila Farzana, and wondering where are we going. An ideal piece of writing to read right afterwards.
Farhad
March 4, 2007 at 5:48 pm
Great analysis Rumi Bhai. I think BD is going towards option #4, or may be even #3. #3 is tougher to implement, as it’ll not be easy to destroy the massive support base of AL, and it’ll not be easy to convict the AL leadership for the last five years of BNP rule. They can be tried for their 1996-2001 rule, but I doubt if much proof of corruption can be discovered aganist the top leaders, apart from may be a couple of them. Some leaders may get punishment for violence, but that doesn’t effect the top tier of the AL.
#4, on the other hand, is an easier option to implement, because BNP is now in big trouble with the proofs of relief goods getting discovered from the homes of the leaders. Tareq Rahman’s corruption is no longer a secret, and his getting arrested seems to be just a matter of time. People’s hate for BNP has reached such a level that many of my traditional anti AL friends living in BD cannot stand KZ’s name anymore. The recent fire at the BSEC bhaban was rumored to be planned by Tareq so that some important documents can be destroyed, and many ppl actually believes in the rumor. So the anti AL camp needs to change its player, which will be easy to do, either thru Yunus, or a new party with relatively clean BNP men.
Sheikh Hasina was critized by the AL central working committee for her stand on an election in June. So it looks like AL will stop advocating for an early election, which makes option #1 pretty impossible. AL now wants option #2 but I doubt if they’ll get that.
March 4, 2007 at 7:07 pm
Sometimes thinking about all this, when I get confused, I feel like Dr. Zafar Iqbal who recently said, “I am glad that I don’t understand politics. If I did, I would started looking for international conspiracy and blueprint in everything that the CTG is doing. I would not get the pure pleasure that I get reading the newspaper every morning these days. The people in Bangladesh are living in peace. The chance that came in 1971 to build Bangladesh has come back again”
Its a must read for all who hasn’t read it
http://www.prothom-alo.org/archive/news_details_mcat.php?dt=2007-03-01&issue_id=178&cat_id=3&nid=Mjc2NTg=&mid=Mw==
Because I can’t figure out the consipiracy in my tiny little mind, i feel like I should do my best to help out to make the change that is happening. Today, someone from my school (st. joseph) wrote to me that he wants to return to Bangladesh to work for Yunus’ party. I read that and I thought it must this passion that drove people to Muktijudhdho in 1971. I finished reading Tahmima Anam’s Golden Age a few weeks ago and going through the pages of the book, 1971 sunk in me again. The dreams , the values that so many people sacrificed their lives for — are they going to be wasted just like that? I know its a cliche, but I think that to rebuild the Bangladesh that are forefathers saw, we all will have to do our part. Those who are abroad and in a position to return should seriously think about returning to Bangladesh, those who can contribute in the process, must contribute. This is the year, this is the time. We are passing through a historical juncture and its now or never for our country.
March 4, 2007 at 7:34 pm
Just read MZI’s article now, he just spoke of my mind.
-Sharmin
March 4, 2007 at 7:38 pm
Because they support Bangladeshi nationalism, and as they found Khaleda’s BNP was the only formidable forces to uphold that nationalism, the establishment and the majority of the people helped BNP come back to power at least three times since assasination of President Zia.———Thanks Rumi brother.
This long sentence need to be explained more details.
From whom, you got this information people like BNP more ? In 91 elections, AL got more vote than BNP. AL lose each election, but they got same vote like BNP. Three times winner?????? . One party election in 1996 .Dr Yunus can also win in one party like 1996 election.
If you are power for long time, you may create some of your supporter like corruption or other ways. BNP is a party of anti AL. If AL makes mistake, BNP increases.
Civil/military may be anti AL ,but they necessarily need not be supporter of BNP.
March 4, 2007 at 8:01 pm
Very comprehensive analysis indeed.
I like it because I am practically in total agreement with it. However, my gut feeling tells me that this government does not really have a specific agenda as far as the future political setup is concerned. It appears to me that they really want to stem corruption, which in turn is leading to a clean-up operation of unprecedent proportions.
I believe that this mechanism will lead to an automatic weakening of the two major parties. We already hear about major disagreements that KZ and SH are having with their party workers. It actually looks like finally there will be some internal democracy within the parties. The AL and BNP of tomorrow will have a very different face and character. Psychologically, the BNP high command appears to have accepted their imminent loss in the next elections.
The question arises, how much of a potent force will NS be. The fact is at this time they will not be able to win without forming some major alliances. Our rural polulace does not really know much about them. Many actually dislike the concept of “interest”. But time is on their side. If this interim period can be extended for about 2 years NS may be able to take on a weakened AL and BNP. It appears to me that other than a select few nobody is really voicing any opposition to such an extended stay for the CTG.
I personally think that the CTG should not tinker with the constitution. That will lead to a weakening of our international image. A presidential form designed to bring DY into power will not be right. Let him come into power through the proper channels, through purely democratic means.
I think if the CTG limits itself to its publicly stated goals of cleaning up corruption and creating a balanced environment for elections, it would have done its job and the hapless citizenry would be ever-grateful. As a consequence of its actions, the two major parties are already weakened and their is room for a genuine third poltical party. Let us allow democracy to decide where that leads us.
March 4, 2007 at 8:12 pm
Perhepas, this article will tell what might be next ….
Is ‘mystery man’ behind political changes?
http://www.weeklyholiday.net/front.html#06
March 4, 2007 at 10:13 pm
Very interesting analysis. Not really my place to comment on which option is best for BD, but I wholeheartedly agree with Asif’s call to expats to invest their passion and energy in the future here. There’s never been a better time.
PS Very challenging and thought-provoking A-Z of the Emergency in Slate Magazine yesterday. See http://www.newagebd.com/slate/2007/mar/01.html
March 4, 2007 at 11:15 pm
Seems democratic voices gaining ground within AL – indeed a very encouraging piece of news. Check it out at:
http://jugantor.com/online/news.php?id=51329&sys=3
March 4, 2007 at 11:26 pm
Tanoy,
I remember a reply to my opinion in New Age last year when a diplomat in BD responded that “BD will NEVER get rid of corruption”.
How I disagreed with him, and how wrong he was.
Ref comment #4 and #3 above, I simply said we need 2 new parties to replace AL and BNP – one maybe NS and the other something different.
Why should that be so impractical? Why should the existence of AL and BNP be so practical, think INNOVATION for total replacement of those failed orgs?
And are the (majority) people’s heartbeat really with AL and BNP? no way. People are glad to get rid of them.
Remember nothing is impractical in politics, did you ever imagine that army would come in before elections to jail big fish?
We must be open to INVENTIVE IDEAS when it comes to democracy, even be ready to DISQUALIFY old parties like AL and BNP, especially if they have been totally criminal and corrupt.
And why would NS not be a lootocracy? Because they have LAUNCHED amid new rules of checks and balances, new ACC, new judiciary, and new leadership, unlike AL and BNP who were nurtured and bathed in a legacy of corruption.
Whole object of this thread is to be creative, and not remain attached to old politics, so be ready to dissect the old and look for brand new avenues.
March 5, 2007 at 12:19 am
I don’t think the players under option#2 will be AL and BNP only. On the contrary I think after all the cleansing of corruption, and the laws that the CG is trying to put in place such as convicted felons cannot run for election, loan defaulters cannot run for election…etc, these will ensure the old goons won’t be the front runners.
I also don’t understand how NS will be a distant third party after all these cleansing of corruption? I believe NS will have localized (UP levels) campaign and select the candidate that the majority of the constituency approve, and hopefully under a free and fair election that candidate will go to Shongshod and truly represent the people (this is the most ideal scenario, reality may be something else).
I believe the shadow force is clearing the way for NS to emerge as a force that will be like a breath of fresh air for the entire country. I believe the kind of peace and tranquility BD people are enjoying now (however superficial that may be), people will think they could have that by sending NS candidate to parliament.
There are a lot of Shoktijodhas (a pet name for the Yunus supporters given by Asif) willing to volunteer their time and energy to see that happen.
I don’t think Yunus will try to be president under scenario #3. If he did, he could have taken the position of CA back in January. He didn’t because he believes in parliamentary system. He wouldn’t want the two parties to share power anymore (as he did back in Nov). He clearly expressed his disgust for big wigs in BNP and AL, and he said NS will not accept somebody with strong historic ties with BNP/AL. So I don’t think he’ll go for coalition – unless he will be flip-flopping come election time.
March 5, 2007 at 1:23 am
SMSI,
Yes BNP was elected three times since assasination of Zia!!!!! And that does not include 2/15/96 elexction.
First time in 1981 under Justice Sattar, then 1991 and 2001 under Khaleda Zia. Please try to extend your history knowledge beyond Feb 15 1996.
March 5, 2007 at 2:29 am
I think option #2 is most realistic by any means. It’s hard for me to believe why Mr. Fakruddin, current CTG advisors, even army will put their hard works and reputations in question trying to do something beyond option #2 Specially donors will not be interested in such policy which is much more controversial and unconstitutional ( referendum govt., or precidnecial system ). More likely they are happy with the development projects ( power, transportation, port etc. ) that has been taking so far by current CTG. On the other hand, mass people has TRUST and SUPPORT to this CTG so far, which is the key LEGITIMACY of them! There is no way they deliberately put their LEGITIMACY in question, especially those who are directly or indirectly related or influential to this CTG, such as advisors, army, donors shushil shomaj etc. If they do so.., that will be very very bad for our history and future. ( more Divide and mistrust among us )
As for 3rd party’s play ground such as NS, will be ensured as long as law and orders are working as planed ( reformed ACC, EC, justice, bureaucracy etc. ). In the process, NS may not get the nod for run the govt. in coming election, but that’s not the ultimate goal we are looking for, not at least by any COST I mean. And I hope and believe all of the influential party including current CTG, army, donors, shushil shomaj, mass people share same vision and expectation.
March 5, 2007 at 2:36 am
m. amin,
the sirajul alam khan article is nonsense from begining to end. he is a washed up has-been who has spent the last few decades trying to chipko on to whatever political movement is flavor of the day. he has no connection to yunus and none whatsoever to cpd, daily star, prothom alo. i dont know abt other claims made but strongly suspect they are false too.
best,
zafar
March 5, 2007 at 2:58 am
RE: # 17
You are probably right PoorLand. I have similar feelings myself about the options I laid out. But I am not too optimistic about a viable 3rd party under the parliamentary system. Dr Yunus would be most effective under a presidential system.
March 5, 2007 at 3:53 am
KGazil I am not agreed with you in Full thing.
First of al As an organization I don’t think Al and BNP are failing. About AL If you guys think I am supporter of Al or Not I don’t have any problem.
I think Al has successfully run the country . Data and statistics are biggest proof of that.
Regarding BNP, Do you think Tareq, Milon, Babar, Allal, Bhulu, Shawapan , Mamun etc are political leaders?
This not the BNP of Mirja Gloam Hafiz, Bchowdhury, Saifur Rahman or Sheikh Razzak Al.
In Fact as an institution BNP was ok But when Leader ship is Migrated to People like
Sq Chwdhury, Barrister Moudud Ahmed, Musharaf Hussain problem started from then.
Plus there is the support
of War Criminlas like Nizami and Mujahid.
These type of people don’t have any party and I will be not surprised If those same people may have safe destinations to NS.
Let me ask you some Thing If from tomorrow
Nijami or Mujahid is become clean shaved and become suited do you think their cherecter is going to be changed? Basically BNP, JP even NS are representing the same
thing. Just Father of the BNP or JP were army and NS is nothing but Test Tube baby
of same father.
and What do you mean by Majority? who are those Majority. You or Me? Let me tell you one thing Do you have the data of numbers of registered political workers(AL, BNP, JP, Left front) of the Country? I think their Number is bigger
than Your and my so called Elite class.
Can You deny their Morals and Thoughts?
BNP of 2001 is Un success ful does not mean Al of 96 is unsuccessful. You can’t even take BNP of 1990 on Same Bracket of 2001.
Just Remember New Judiciary and all are the
demand of time and CTG has done this thing not NS. I doubt they could do it if they are in the power. If NS starts it journey well. Other wise I think NS will be the another party of Clean shaved people.
March 5, 2007 at 4:56 am
My opinion is Bangladesh gradually going towards option 4. Because Al has a strong Grass root level and After 1975 This party is
fighting with all sorts of Adverse Circumstances. So They know Crisis Management very well.
About BNP I think Zia Family Image is one of the biggest Slap for them and which was biggest investment for them. So I am agreed with Rumi Bhai that their Forumla of Idealism
was not died. So They BNP old supporters need
the platform right now to bounce back in here and I think To them Eunus is a temporarily solution.But Right now They need them Badly to make an image for them. But only issue will be Global Scenario and what will be the starting point?
March 5, 2007 at 5:53 am
Rumi Bhai,
Nice post. Some points.
A. You are right that at least for the last 15 years, our political divide has been broadly in terms of AL and various non-AL factions. But why did people support or oppose AL?
I wonder whether ‘Bangladeshi nationalism’ is at all relevant in the current context. Most people under 40 identify themselves as Bangladeshi – hell even Sajeeb Wazed uses Bangladeshi.
One of the first piece I read here in October or November 2006 was on why people supported BNP (I think you wrote it, but I could be wrong). I think rather than blanket reference to nationalism (or invoking the Liberation War), that kind of analysis would help.
March 5, 2007 at 5:54 am
B. Why should the current regime try your options 3 or 4? Poorland in #17 makes a strong case for the regime opting for your 2nd option.
But the regime didn’t stage the coup. The coup was staged by the army, with active support of various foreign missions and the civil society. Do any of them want to promote options 3 or 4?
Possibly the foreign missions and a section of the civil society do. Dr Yunus has said that he is for open borders with India and utilizing our natural resources (ie selling gas to India through western multinationals). These would benefit many in the civil society (for the record, I personally think that free trade and globalization benefits all), but neither AL nor BNP could openly urge these policies.
BNP is currently so demoralized that a realignment of the pro-globalization sections from all sides of politics, with the help of the civil society could organize into a credible counter to AL even under a parliamentary system. So even if the regime opts for your 2nd option, we could end up with number 4.
March 5, 2007 at 6:00 am
C. Not everyone gains equally from globalization. And not everyone welcomes close relations with India. And religious beliefs or cultural conservatism are more important than material gains for many. Those who instinctively dislike India or want an Islamic state have traditionally been anti-AL. Some of them have supported Jamaat. But many have supported smaller Islamist parties or BNP or JP. A post-BNP pro-globalization party will not attract these voters. Where will they go? Maybe some will turn to Jihadi violence. But it’s also possible that some will sign up with AL.
An AL-Islamist alliance is not at all beyond belief – Daily Inqilab’s editorial line is now indistinguishable from Daily Janakantha’s and the aborted pact with the Khilafatis can be revived anytime. In the post-BNP Bangladesh, AL’s sharp rightward turn could be your 5th option.
This kind of sharp policy change is not new for AL. AL used to have a strong pro-US foreign policy as late as 1970. The Economist endorsed AL over PPP in 1970 election because Sheikh Mujib’s pro-American stance. In a changed circumstance AL became a pro-Soviet party. We all know about the BKSL system and its subsequent abandonment. Closer to our time, AL has been courting Islamists since the early 1990s.
If anyone thinks that an AL-Islamist alliance will damage AL’s base, then I ask, why do people support AL in the first place?
March 5, 2007 at 6:00 am
I will tell it is incredibly difficult for good guys to get into politics. If you are a thug or mastan you are valued more! I would any day give up my job and return back if opportunities are given but because I will not assist in plundering the country I will not be seen as useful despite the experience, qualification and exposure to better systems I have.
I quite don’t understand Bangladeshi politics as it changes its colour so frequently. Some of the politicians being courted by DMY camp are not quite squeaky clean. There are so many talented people in Bangladesh, why do we have to keep going back to the old guns who has proved their incompetence over last 35 years. Politics is not something belongs to those existing politicians. Why can’t we have people who were not involved with politics before but have the willingness to change, a good conscience and honest.
The current events shows that the power being shifted from one group of elites to another. Where is the participation of the middle classes who inspired so many revolutions in Bangladesh?
Unless the CTG continues with the firmness in running the country it will not be long until the major parities start to cause disturbances which will lead to eventual full army take-over and international condemnation. In order for this government to continue with what they are doing they need weaken the two party so much they will not be able to resist the changes and this need to start with speedy trial of corrupt leaders and banning them in taking part in any future elections.
March 5, 2007 at 6:20 am
Rumi #19
>>”But I am not too optimistic about a viable 3rd party under the parliamentary system. Dr Yunus would be most effective under a presidential system.”
I have the same feeling exactly what you said above. But then again, I don’t see any constitutional or legitimate way to amend parliamentary system to presidential system, not at least without a amend from elected govt.. or all major parties common agreement that we had in ‘96. Which seems highly unlikely given that means the DEATH of AL and BNP. If current CTG or whatever power force presidential system somehow, and as a result Dr. Yunus get the nod, will definitely reduce his acceptance to the mass, as well as become a source of anarchy and controversy from opponent ( AL, BNP, JI etc ).
Now even if Dr. Yunus remains ineffective after next election under parliamentary system, still has positive effect on politics and society. Such as rotten politicians are gone, AL, BNP itself got rectified, law, order and PEACE is in action that we ever had, and more importantly seems a winning game for every body! ( mass, CTG, advisors, army, donors, Shushil Shomaj, AL, BNP and what not ).
Finally, Dr. Yunus and other good people will be there in politics, and will bring good culture, practice in politics, and mass people has the chance to select them in future when they wish. If we lose Dr. Yunus and likes in the process … well that’s totally our ( mass people ) fault … lets not get that pessimist yet, rather look positive.
March 5, 2007 at 7:04 am
Anthony, thanks for all your inputs. I liked your assertions.
I made a mistake in my post, i.e. I did not clarify what I meant by Bangladeshi Nationalism, which could be more appropriately called Ziaism in current Bangladesh politics. Not going into definition let me give you some traits of Ziaism,
1. More of political and cultural conservatives and bearer of Bangladeshi nationalistic pride.
2. Not so loyal to a party, as factors like patriotism, conscience and nationalistic sense occassionally eclipses party allegiance. This is quite unlike hardcore Awami League supporters, who will hold party interests before everything else.
2. Suspicious of India.
3. OK with limited indulgence of religion Islam by state.
4. Hates Jamaat but don’t believe they could be as harmful as promoted by Awami League intellectuals.
5. Very receptive to corporate globalization sans India.
5. Believes that 1971, Jamaat etc are overly and unduly used sentiments for petty political gain.
6. Will like to see a positive image of Bangladesh in global media and abhore promoting Bangladesh as a Islamic fundamentalist country.
March 5, 2007 at 1:16 pm
Rumi Bhai,
I don think point #2 in your comment # 27 is right. Hardcore AL supporter or hardcore BNP supporters, both the groups have stronger party allegiance than patriotism. Blind supporters are blind, they don think abt the country, only about their party. So it will be unwise to put the blame on hardcore AL supporters alone.
I think the ‘Bangladeshi nationalists’ comprises of the following factions:
1. Core anti Indian ppl.
2. Former leftists(mainly china backed) who were anti AL during the early 1970’s.
3. Culturally conservative ppl, opposing to traditional Bengali culture, and valuing the Islamic culture more.
4. Majority of the students in Ershad’s time (1982-1990). This is because of BNP’s strong stand against the Ersahd govt, which earned KZ the title of ‘aposh heen netri’.
5. A large portion of civil and military bureaucracy. Specially the military in 1970’s was very much anti AL. AL got only 26 % vote in the cantonment area even in 1973 election. Zia, on the other hand, had greater support in the sepoy level.
6. A big portion of the Freedom Fighters who were disgruntled by AL’s failure after 1971 to run a country efficiently.
7. A portion of the former Muslim League supporters, who were largely neutral/ mentally inclined towards Pakistan during the 1971 liberation war, but had to face problems after the liberation.
8. A portion of general mass, whose contribution during the war was not recognized becoz they didn’t belonged to AL.
9. Active Rajakars in 1971 (Principally Jamaat supporters).
Together, these portion amount to about 50-60 % of our population. These factions are expected to vote against the AL, but their allegiance for a party is not fixed. Till date, BNP attracted the majority of these votes, but now with BNP in deep trouble becoz of their corruption, these people may change their voting pattern completely in the next election. That’s why a new party with relatively similar ideology of BNP may do exceptionally well in the next election.
March 5, 2007 at 2:37 pm
FZ You are right But I think These BNP supporters need a Platform asap which will
be anti Al It does not matter If it is pro India or anti India. My opinion is that 50%
of CTG advisers are also looking for Alternative Force of BNP but group of same concept. My opinion is that JP was
Born in cantonment and Now It is clinically dead Just Oxygen is Ershad. BNP is already affected By Cancer and gradually going for the destiny. I am agreed with Rumi Bhai Power of Jamat and all are very much negligible. At least This Class of people don’t want to see Jamat in power. I feel Demand of election of Sheikh Hasina is right just because of party point of view. See this my personal opinion But I feel If there is any election right now It will be the Landslide victory for AL and FZ has described beautifully who are those force.So
Now You Need NS and all those party. But I think Prof yunus is also not showing any maturity in the politics. He had a great platform but he is misusing it.
I remember some People used to praise Tareq Zia for his all undemocratic activities and They treated him as “MATURED POLITICIAN”.
Now Same people is blaming him . Now same people have changed their color and coming under the umbrella of NS. But Truly I think
Khaleda Zia is the only one who really made united this Force with aplomb .
But Now It is difficult to get another KZ for this force and Here lies the real transformation of the pure Bangladesh.
March 5, 2007 at 7:14 pm
I don’t know why ppl are fighting on our so called nationalisom- both of these “jatiyotabad” have become truly vague slogans and both of the parties beholding them are more or less same in character.
Reality is, there is no conspiracy behind, CTG will make or try to make some change; that will temporarily change the political culture and then it will be the same “je jae lonkae, she hoe rabon”. This time AL will go to power after an election held in 1 1/2 year; they will start ploiticising everything in an year or two, the ministers will start corruption immediately, the honests will be kept in the back bench and BNP will start calling hartal. Faces will change, but things won’t.
Yunus or the other so called “third forces” will be miles away from the general voters, because we, as a nation, can spit on others but can never stand up against our own party bias and make or support a new direction.
March 5, 2007 at 11:59 pm
Rumi,
Thanks for the well articulated post. I agree with you that option #2 seems to be the strongest possibility at the moment. But also believe, option # 3 will be an integral process in the path towards option #2. If the cleansing process continues and extends up and down the hierarchy of AL-BNP (which seems quite likely at the moment), it may culminate in structural breakdown of these two political parties. So, it won’t be necessary for the third force (NS or whoever) to rise as much in strength to compete as both AL-BNP will be weakened tremendously.
NS should not be a force to reckon with in a parliamentary setting. It neither has the organizational structure of a political party nor has the political echelon or workers to guide it through. But a presidential election is a different story. DMY has a fair chance there. But as far as I know, the current parliamentary system cannot be changed without a parliament in session. Right? or are there other ways of changing the constitution?
But the $65000 question is, in the midst of all these speculations and anticipations, where is DMY and NS?? What are the political programs/activities NS have undertaken? Last I heard, DMY was in Pakistan promoting GB and Microcredit (well and good). But shouldn’t he be back home and meeting with people of all classes and sects to mobilize NS??!! I am still hopeful of this man, still think he will make the right move and is the right person, but must admit, I am getting a little impatient.
March 6, 2007 at 2:36 am
I guess DMY cannot start mobilizing right now. The SOE bans open political activities like meeting, processions etc. In order to form a new party, he’ll need to go to the ppl, or the ppl need to mobilize themselves by arranging meetings. I think that is why he’s not actively going for politics right now.
March 6, 2007 at 3:16 am
re #20 Tanoy Says: “I think AL has successfully run the country . Data and statistics are biggest proof of that.”
——————-
Do please share those stats with us!!
March 6, 2007 at 4:16 am
well please give me your email address and
all . I will send you the Details of 5 years
of AL 96-2001 in all sectors. As I am not the member of DP I can’t attach all those files or
I will mail Asif . He may publish in here.
March 6, 2007 at 10:08 am
my email is kgazi@yahoo.com
Most likely those stats are AL-originated propagaganda, like Ford motor says “best car in the world are Ford”!!
But if AL was really so successful then I would be the first one to support them – and they would not lose to a landslide in 2001.
But sadly their track-record on crime and corruption, and hartal and boycott-democracy is a record of destructive miserable failure.
Here is a livings stats for us:
The SUCCESS that the CTG has done in ONE MONTH surpasses all the stats you can provide for AL and BNP in 15 years. Thats the success I am talking about – (not the AL-BNP type of bogus success). Imagine if this CTG type of focused action continues for 15 years – then BD will surpass any HK or Singapore, in less time.
March 6, 2007 at 1:37 pm
If you decide earlier about propagaganda then
How? I will send you that is sure.
But see In the state of Emergency Every thing looks good. It is not your opinion only .Lots of People are thinking we are surpassing HK and SG Even USA. But Do You know How much heard effort we need to put on This. Brother
why should we depend on Govt only? Why don’t
We reform ourselves to be a Singaporean(Term of Honesty) . One small Example Father of the Nation of Singapore
Lee Kuan Yew is still getting highest respect and we killed our father of the Nation.
March 6, 2007 at 3:14 pm
We can reform ourselves until we each become Gandhi and Yunus, but that will be useless if national crime and corruption, economy and devt are not CONTROLLED efficiently by the Govt.
GDP and society are MANAGED COLLECTIVELY by Govt, thru police, courts, banks and not by individual reform – so no matter how reformed U and I are, if the STATE FUNDS are stolen, if the devt project is bogus, if the ministers are collecting bribes, then nothing becomes S’Pore and HK. All the national revenue goes to Swiss banks, and the nation drowns in poverty.
Individuals will be controlled by state LAWS created by Govt systems, and leaders will be respected like LK Yew, only when they are PERCIEVED to be doing good for the people.
If people percieve that the leader is corrupting his promise, then they will reject him – no matter who he is.
Role of GOVT is critical to national crime and corruption. It is no “hard work” to reform a nation to democracy and wealth. We only need to stop crime and corruption – has AL and BNP done that?
March 6, 2007 at 4:55 pm
It is too early to Compare Yunus with Gandhi.
He has not proved any thing for the country Yet.
Do we really know the condition of Actual Client of GB?
What was the condition of This Village where
Bill Clinton went to see as a Model of Yunus.?
Masuda Bhatii was asking this question
to Amader shomoy Editor. K Gazi I respect your Passion about Yunus . I was also happy that He won Nobel Price But His post Nobel
Activities at least does not help me to get
the picture of Dynamic leader. K Gazi I am sure you are representing those Class of the people who is Known as Sushil Shomaz.
I like to Stay with those people where I have found the destiny of My root. At least I Can say proudly I have been born in a country where there is a blood Shed history. What I have achieved today because of My own effort. To me Dr Yunus is nothing But another Nobel Laureate .But
I never Found Any Tagore, Prof Sen or Prof Salam, CV Raman, Mother Teresa,Nelson Mandela in Him. Better My feeling is that
He is
another Ariel sharon or Boris Yeltsin and Fw D Clerk.
I Just don’t want because of someone’s personal ambition my people of the country is suffering.Let Him go to the root first.
Get the confidence of those people and very important to get the confidence of common people like us Then I think he is another Modern Mahathir.
March 7, 2007 at 1:56 am
KGazi,
you are so right in presenting the 15 year reference for SUCCESS. I fully agree with you. The potential of this country is tremendous. Just look at the GDP growth of last year amidst all the hartals and ‘movements for democracy’ and corruption and so on. It could have been easily double digit growth if we had a calm like current days.
You are also right that we all don’t have to become Yunus and Gandhi to take the country forward. LK Yew did not make a second LKY, but he policed everyone to be on the right track. He took ‘discipline’ to its extreme heights and the development was just a byproduct !
We hardly need stories of dreams of our ‘founding fathers’, we need some discipline to give development a chance for its natural growth.
March 7, 2007 at 6:53 am
Friends,
Today Mar 06,2007 daily Star publishes an article of Barrister Harun Ur Rashid;”General Election n non-party caretaker government”- that should be good reading for knowledge.
It is too early to figure out the choices given;
but one thing is very clear that if the Parties have not by now uderstood that a drastic change in formation,administration and nomination system is absolutely needed and is the “DEMAND” of the people too– then under whatever options and whatever Party makes we would soon in course time be back to square “zero”–infact “sub-zero” also its time that people also realize that the existence of Party depends on them and not vice versa– the Vote Power– if u dont Vote they dont survive- both these,two, important points must prominently feature in the coming days or all these efforts by the present CTG will be “Zero”- You all are aware of the proverb “You can take the horse to the pond/river-but you cant make it drink”. The present CTG can hopefully solve the problem of black money n make laws to prevent corrupt politicans from being nominated and say with the EC declare the ELECTION DATES but if we r not upto mark to play our roles– then how do u expect changes will be effective?????????
March 7, 2007 at 11:22 pm
Phantom,
Just making changes and jailing few ministers will not be the answer to anti-corruption, like u said it will all come back to same again.
So What is needed is accountability and reform of:
- banking & black money laws
- electoral system (no criminals)
- checks & balances (watch each other)
- civil-service (COPY S’PORE and HKONG)
- money handling offices (customs, tax, bills, banks,
- police (like RAB and SWAT team)
- govt reforms (BTTB, ports, tenders, etc)
Once these are done, then the govt will run efficiently BY ITSELF, self-desciplined and auto-policed. Meanwhile, keep continuous eye and regular controls on politicians and bureaucrats.
Take continuous audits and trainings from UAE, KL, HK and EU, and watch nation grow.
March 7, 2007 at 11:42 pm
Clarifying #41, the crackdown on corrupt is an excellent and NECESSARY start, but the additional reforms are also needed, to maintain anti-corruption and efficiency.
March 11, 2007 at 10:22 pm
Perhaps sequence of events may be as follows:
CIG: Caretaker Interim Government headed by Iajuddin.
PIG: Paramilitary Interim Government headed by Fakruddin.
FIG: Full-military Interim government headed by GMUA [General Moin U Ahmed] or
GMUC [General Masud Uddin Chowdhury] or some other players [Who Knows!].
MU [Mass Upurge] against military rule after couple of years or Pakistani Musharraf Model Democracy, perhaps DMY as the prime minister. By this time Khaleda and Hasina will hopefully retire from politics leaving the heirdom with Mujib and Zia progeny.
Thanks.